Elon Musk says SpaceX could pull in roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, triple the figure his own underwriters project.
Key Points:
- Musk projects close to $1 trillion in SpaceX revenue by 2030, with more the year after.
- Morgan Stanley, a lead underwriter, models about $330 billion for that same year.
- The call follows the largest IPO in history, which lifted SpaceX above a $2 trillion valuation.
SpaceX Revenue Forecast Faces Steep Math
Musk posted the claim over the weekend, only days after the rocket maker completed the largest stock market debut on record, where the stock climbed about 19% on day one. The offering raised about $75 billion and lifted the valuation past $2 trillion. Musk kept 82.4% of the voting power and set the new bar himself.
That trillion-dollar call would demand a 53-fold jump in five years, a pace no company of comparable size has ever sustained over such a stretch.
The company reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, up from $14 billion a year earlier, a gain near 33%. Revenue sat close to $10 billion as recently as 2023, so the climb is steep yet far from vertical.
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Wall Street Estimates Trail Musk's Pitch
Morgan Stanley, a lead underwriter, estimates revenue near $330 billion in 2030, with roughly $160 billion arriving as early as 2028. Goldman Sachs leans harder on artificial intelligence and pencils in about $474 billion in total, yet both still land well below Musk.
Each forecast assumes years of flawless execution across rockets, satellites and AI.
Those projections rest on AI infrastructure rather than rockets, with Morgan Stanley crediting the segment for roughly $190 billion of its 2030 total, with Goldman placing the AI line even higher. The unit, built around xAI after February's merger, earned only $3.2 billion in 2025 while posting a $6.4 billion loss.
For now, Starlink funds the business, generating $11.4 billion last year. Subscribers reached 10.3 million across more than 160 countries by March 2026, up from 8.9 million a year earlier, even as average revenue per user kept sliding. The launch arm, meanwhile, kept bleeding cash on Starship development.
Musk has missed his own deadlines before, then delivered all the same. His earlier bets on reusable rockets, mass-market electric cars and satellite internet drew open doubt before paying off, leaving investors to decide which pattern holds now.
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