Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff began 2026 predicting the cryptocurrency will decline after 2025 underperformance despite widespread bullish narratives. In a Jan. 1 forecast video, the economist argued that Bitcoin's failure to rally amid positive catalysts signals exhausted upside and structural weakness ahead.
What Happened: Market Analysis
Schiff presented 2025 performance data showing Bitcoin fell while traditional assets rallied in a Jan. 1 "Year-End Special" episode outlining his 2026 market forecasts.
The economist cited major indexes posting gains: the Dow up 13%, the S&P 500 up 16.4%, and the Nasdaq up 20.4%. Gold rose 64% while silver more than doubled during the same period.
"Everybody on CNBC was pounding the table on when the year began was Bitcoin," Schiff said, describing narratives including "a Bitcoin president," "a Bitcoin strategic reserve," heavy corporate buying, and exchange-traded fund growth. "Bitcoin was one of the only things that was down on the year."
Schiff said Bitcoin ETFs "closed […] because they're done for the year" down "just over 7.5% on the year," contrasting with Nasdaq and gold gains.
He pointed to Strategy, the market's most visible leveraged Bitcoin proxy, finishing 2025 at a new 52-week low "down 47.5% on the year" and "67% below its peak 52-week high."
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Why It Matters: Demand Concerns
Schiff's argument centers on price action signaling exhausted demand despite favorable narratives throughout 2025.
"If something doesn't go up when everybody thinks it's going to go up, that's a pretty good indication that it's going to go down," he said. "If a market can't go up on good news, that means all that good news is already priced into the market […] and that means all that it can do is go down."
The economist claimed Strategy's five-year average Bitcoin cost basis sits around $75,000, implying only a modest gain with Bitcoin near $87,000. "That's about a 16% gain, 3% a year over 5 years," he said, arguing the position undercuts claims of consistent compounding returns.
Schiff set a downside target of approximately $50,000 mid-December 2025.
"The ETFs are selling now," he said. "They've gone from big Bitcoin buyers to consistent Bitcoin sellers."
His broader 2026 macro outlook includes weaker growth, persistent inflation, and intensifying political pressure on monetary policy—conditions he expects to support precious metals while pressuring Bitcoin. Schiff urged viewers to "get rid of your Bitcoin above $87,000," predicting capital rotation toward gold and silver.
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