In the past 24 hours, XRP tokens experienced a significant surge over 5%, propelling gains among leading cryptocurrencies while BTC narrowly avoided a feared historical "massacre" with a moderate uptick.
Early Friday saw BTC rise above $96,000, improving from Thursday's low of $93,500. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB remained largely unchanged, while Cardano increased by 3.5%, and Dogecoin saw a 1.2% decline. The broadly followed CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which tracks major cryptocurrencies, rose by 1.3%. Among midcaps, Algorand's ALGO and Worldcoin's WLD surged by up to 21% despite no immediate catalysts.
In Asian trading hours, the crypto market's movements correlated with a significant shift in the Japanese yen, which broke a key level against the U.S. dollar. The yen strengthened past 150 against the dollar, influenced by expectations of a possible Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate increase in December, driven by unexpectedly high Tokyo inflation data. Month-end financial adjustments and low liquidity owing to Thanksgiving likely amplified this movement.
Current market sentiment assigns a 63% probability of a BOJ rate hike, in contrast with a 67% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Such scenarios could diminish the yen's appeal in carry trades. As an "anti-risk" and safe-haven currency, the yen typically attracts investors during uncertain times.
In recent history, yen outperformance at the end of July and September triggered a reversal of carry trades—the unwinding of bullish, risk-on stocks funded by inexpensive yen loans—due to higher borrowing costs for the Japanese currency. Some experts are worried. For instance, a CoinDesk analysis this week suggested a weakening of bitcoin's bullish run.
This indication was further echoed by a decrease in the Aussie dollar/Yen exchange rate, signaling a shift towards a risk-off sentiment. The Australian dollar, tied to the global economic climate, and the yen often inversely impact risk assets like BTC. This scenario is reminiscent of an earlier phase when yen appreciation, catalyzed by rumors of a BOJ rate hike, led to an 8% AUD/JPY drop and a $20,000 fall in BTC, exemplifying the potential influence of foreign exchange dynamics on the cryptocurrency market.