Jim Cramer urged investors to hold off on large SpaceX purchases until an Aug. 6 insider lockup expiration frees roughly 911.5 million shares for sale.
Key Points:
- Cramer told buyers who want a big position to wait for the first wave of insider selling before stepping in.
- Roughly 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale on Aug. 6, more than doubling the tradable supply.
- SpaceX publishes its first results as a listed company on Aug. 4, two trading days earlier.
Cramer Warns SpaceX Lockup Will Drag Shares Lower
The CNBC host said buyers who want a big position should let the first wave of insider selling run its course, then step in after the added supply has pushed prices down.
He spoke Tuesday, during a session that carried the stock to a record intraday low of $107.01 before a late bounce erased most of the day's loss.
SpaceX reports second quarter results on Aug. 4, its first as a listed company. Two trading days later, employees and early backers may sell up to 911.5 million shares, a block worth roughly $116 billion at recent prices and more than double the tradable supply. Analysts at HSBC calculate that the free float would climb from 4.9% to 11.8% on that date, with further releases tied to price triggers and later earnings reports.
Additional tranches run through Dec. 8, when the backstop lockup expires, while Elon Musk and a small group of insiders remain restricted until the middle of 2027. None of this should surprise anyone who read the June prospectus in detail.
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Gary Black And Cathie Wood Split On SpaceX
Cramer also pressed investors to read the fine print on two artificial intelligence computing deals. He noted that Anthropic and Alphabet can each walk away on 90 days' notice, which leaves the rental revenue difficult to model and Wall Street's multi-year estimates hard to trust. Few other customers carry pockets deep enough to replace that business at short notice, he added.
Opinion on the stock remains split among high profile investors.
The Future Fund's Gary Black expects shares to break below $100, saying surprised holders skipped the valuation math, while Ark Invest's Cathie Wood keeps buying and Ross Gerber sees an opening.
SpaceX Stock Slide Since June IPO
SpaceX priced its June listing at $135 a share and touched $225.64 on Jun. 16, only four sessions into public trading, before the advance began to unwind.
The retreat has been unusually fast. Shares closed Friday at $108.37, a fresh closing low that leaves the company valued near $1.43 trillion, down from about $1.8 trillion at the offer price.
Cramer's caution marks a turn from June, when he described buyers as going nuts for the stock and joked that it might as well carry Musk's name. He still counts Starlink subscriber growth and Starship progress among the reasons to own the shares once the heavy supply overhang has cleared.
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