Polymarket and Kalshi price Spain as a roughly 58% to 59% favorite over Argentina ahead of Sunday's World Cup final at MetLife Stadium.
Key Points
- Spain enters Sunday's World Cup final as a 58-59% favorite on Polymarket and Kalshi, with Argentina priced near 40-41%
- Sportsbook DK Sports opened Spain at -164 and Argentina at +134, with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium
- Sunday's match is the first-ever World Cup final meeting between the two countries
Spain Argentina Odds
Traders have priced Spain to beat Argentina in Sunday's World Cup final, with the team sitting near 58% to 59% on Polymarket and 58.2% on Kalshi as of Jul. 18. Both markets shifted after Spain routed France 2-0 in Tuesday's semifinal, with goals from Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro extending an unbeaten run to 37 matches, a streak that ties Italy for the longest in tournament history. Argentina booked its own spot a day later, erasing a second-half deficit to beat England 2-1 on a stoppage-time goal from Lautaro Martinez, after Enzo Fernandez had leveled the score with a long-range strike.
Sportsbook DK Sports opened Spain as a -164 favorite and Argentina at +134, with the three-way line set at Spain +125, a draw at +200 and Argentina +260, bookmakers confirmed. More than $12 billion has traded on the tournament across Kalshi's markets, including $1.2 billion on the outright winner alone, and Caesars Sportsbook logged its biggest parlay interest on Messi to score against England.
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Analysts Assess Matchup
Odds trackers that aggregate Kalshi and Polymarket pricing show Spain benefiting from a tournament in which it has not trailed for a single minute, a pattern that tends to lower variance in a one-off final.
A separate model built by Squawka puts Spain's win probability at 59.3%, arguing its own projection and the market are broadly in line heading into kickoff. The same trackers make Messi a narrow favorite for the tournament's Golden Boot, giving him roughly a 48.5% chance of finishing as top scorer, a tally he currently shares with Kylian Mbappe on eight goals apiece.
The two nations have never met in a World Cup final before this weekend.
Spain opened the tournament priced near +450 to win the title outright, trailing France, before wins over Portugal, Belgium and France pushed it to the top of the market.
Argentina opened at +950 and climbed steadily as the team leaned on Messi, needing a comeback against Egypt earlier in the knockout rounds before Wednesday's late win over England secured by Martinez's stoppage-time finish. Sunday's kickoff at MetLife Stadium will settle both trajectories in a single match, with the final set for 3 p.m. ET.
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