Billionaire investor Ron Baron says now is the time to buy Tesla, citing FSD uptake on 55% of new North American deliveries and rising U.S. EV share.
Key Points:
- Baron Capital holds about $5 billion in Tesla shares and roughly $25 billion in SpaceX.
- Tesla reported 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions in the second quarter, up 56% from a year earlier.
- Wall Street targets remain unusually wide, ranging from $24.86 to $505.
Ron Baron Bet
Baron made the call Sept. 16 on CNBC, where he said “now” is the time to buy Tesla shares and pointed to Full Self-Driving as a major reason. He said adoption is growing about 55% a year.
Tesla’s second-quarter figures broadly support that direction, with active FSD subscriptions up 56% to 1.48 million and about 55% of new North American deliveries carrying the software at purchase. Baron also said Tesla is gaining U.S. EV share as legacy automakers slow their electric vehicle plans.
Motor Intelligence data reported by The Wall Street Journal put Tesla at 52% of U.S. EV sales through August, up from 43%. The gain came during a weaker market, not an industrywide expansion. Total U.S. EV sales fell 30% over the period, while Tesla’s deliveries declined 16% to 325,351 vehicles.
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Tesla Analyst Split
Tesla traded near $358 on Sept. 16, up 0.3%, for a market value of about $1.4 trillion. TipRanks showed 26 analysts with an average target of $377.08, including a $505 high and a $24.86 low. The group included 11 buy ratings, 12 holds and three sells, while Wells Fargo maintained a $130 target and a sell rating.
Baron’s conviction also comes with significant financial exposure, because Baron Capital holds about $30 billion combined in Tesla and SpaceX. He has said he will support whatever structure Elon Musk chooses for the two companies.
Musk this week again left open the possibility of closer ties between Tesla and SpaceX, saying the companies already collaborate across several areas. “With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas,” Musk said at the All-In Summit.
The recent sales data show why Baron’s thesis remains open to testing. Tesla’s U.S. deliveries fell 16% through August even as its market share rose to 52%, because the wider EV market contracted faster. The next delivery report will show whether stronger FSD adoption and higher share can offset weaker vehicle volumes.
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