President Donald Trump's social media company announced Tuesday it will launch a prediction betting marketplace directly on Truth Social, marking the platform's ambitious entry into an industry that has surged to multi-billion dollar valuations in recent months.
Trump Media & Technology Group revealed plans for Truth Predict, a federally compliant prediction market that will allow users to wager on political elections, sports outcomes, economic indicators, and commodity prices.
The platform will operate through a partnership with Crypto.com's Derivatives North America, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
A Crowded and Controversial Market
Trump Media's move positions the company to compete directly with Polymarket and Kalshi, the two dominant players in prediction markets that have experienced explosive growth. Polymarket is currently seeking funding at valuations between $12 billion and $15 billion, a tenfold increase from its $1 billion valuation just four months earlier. Meanwhile, Kalshi recently raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation and is now fielding offers that would value it above $10 billion.
The prediction markets industry has attracted massive investment from traditional finance. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, invested up to $2 billion in Polymarket earlier this month, valuing the crypto-native platform at $9 billion and making its 27-year-old founder Shayne Coplan the world's youngest self-made billionaire.
"For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets," said Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and former California congressman, in Tuesday's statement. "With Truth Predict, we're democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight."
Trump Family's Deep Ties to Prediction Markets
The announcement represents the Trump family's most direct entry into prediction markets, though it's far from their first connection to the industry. Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi and joined Polymarket's advisory board in August after his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, invested "double-digit millions" in the platform.
The president's son now holds advisory positions at two competing prediction market giants while his father's company launches a third competitor — an arrangement that has raised eyebrows about potential conflicts of interest. Before assuming office for his second term, President Trump transferred his stake in Trump Media to a revocable trust in which Trump Jr. serves as sole trustee, creating additional layers of family business entanglement.
The Crypto.com partnership extends an existing relationship between the companies. In August, Trump Media agreed to create a crypto treasury company for buying and holding Crypto.com's CRO token. Users who earn "Truth gems" — Trump Media's reward points through activity on Truth Social or the Truth+ streaming service — will be able to convert those rewards into CRO tokens for use on prediction contracts.
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek has cultivated close ties with the Trump administration, visiting Mar-a-Lago after the 2024 election and donating $1 million to Trump's inauguration committee.
Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies
The proliferation of prediction markets has attracted increasing regulatory scrutiny and raised concerns about market manipulation and insider trading. Norwegian officials are investigating suspicious betting activity on Polymarket after traders placed large wagers on the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner hours before the official announcement.
Three accounts earned approximately $90,000 in combined profits by correctly betting on Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, whose odds surged from 3.6% to over 70% in the hours before the announcement. One trader, using the handle "dirtycup," placed a $70,000 bet on Machado despite having opened the account just weeks earlier with no prior trading history.
"The odds would only move so much if someone had advance knowledge," Philippe Auclair, a London-based journalist specializing in corruption, told Norwegian media.
Meanwhile, prediction market operators face mounting legal challenges from state regulators who argue these platforms facilitate illegal gambling. Kalshi sued the New York State Gaming Commission on Monday after receiving a cease-and-desist order, marking the company's latest in a series of lawsuits against state authorities in Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio.
The legal dispute centers on whether prediction market contracts constitute federally regulated financial instruments or state-regulated gambling. Courts have reached conflicting decisions, with some ruling in favor of federal preemption and others upholding state gambling authority.
Truth Social's Financial Position
Trump Media reported having more than $3 billion in financial assets and recently achieved its first quarter of positive operating cash flow since going public. However, the company continues to post significant losses, with a $20 million net loss in the second quarter of 2025 and $31 million in the first quarter.
Trump Media stock is currently trading at approximately $16 per share, representing a 52% decline in 2025. The company's push into prediction markets represents an effort to diversify revenue streams beyond its core social media platform, which has struggled to achieve profitability.
The announcement comes as traditional sportsbook operators watch prediction markets warily. Shares in DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter declined slightly Tuesday following the Truth Social announcement, reflecting concerns about new competition in the betting space.
Final thoughts
Truth Social will become the first social media platform to offer fully integrated prediction markets directly within its app, according to company statements. The integration distinguishes Truth Predict from existing partnerships like those between Polymarket or Kalshi and X (formerly Twitter), which are promotional relationships rather than embedded functionality.
Beta testing will begin "in the near future," with a full launch first targeting U.S. users before expanding globally, pending regulatory approvals. Premium Truth Social subscribers will receive special subsidies for their bets, the company said.
The platform will offer prediction contracts on major political elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation rate changes, commodity prices for gold and crude oil, and events across all major sports leagues. Polymarket processed more than $6 billion in trades during the first half of 2025 alone, demonstrating the substantial market opportunity.
As prediction markets continue their rapid expansion from niche crypto experiments to mainstream financial infrastructure, Trump Media's entry signals both the industry's growing legitimacy and its ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Whether Truth Predict can successfully compete with established players while navigating complex federal and state regulations remains to be seen.
The broader Trump family business empire continues to expand its crypto and financial technology footprint. Beyond Trump Media, Eric Trump heads American Bitcoin, a crypto mining company, while the Trump family owns a majority stake in World Liberty Financial, a crypto exchange founded after Trump was sworn in for his second term.