VanEck says Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-observed four-year market cycle may have broken in 2025, a shift that could complicate traditional crypto market signals heading into 2026 and force investors to rethink how they interpret timing, risk, and positioning in digital assets.
In its Q1 2026 outlook, the asset manager said Bitcoin’s price behavior last year diverged from historical post-halving patterns that have typically guided market expectations.
That breakdown, VanEck said, makes short-term directional signals less reliable even as the long-term case for crypto remains intact.
“Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle broke in 2025,” VanEck said, adding that the divergence supports a more cautious outlook over the next three to six months.
The firm noted, however, that the view is not unanimous internally, with some portfolio managers remaining more constructive on the near-term trajectory.
The assessment stands out in a market where cycle-based frameworks, tied to Bitcoin halvings, have historically played a central role in shaping investor expectations.
If those patterns no longer hold, VanEck said, crypto markets may increasingly behave like other macro-sensitive risk assets rather than a standalone cyclical trade.
Crypto Outlook Diverges From Broader Risk-On Signals
VanEck’s caution on Bitcoin contrasts with a more constructive view across several other asset classes heading into 2026.
The firm said clearer fiscal and monetary signals are reducing the frequency of market-moving surprises, creating an environment where investors can engage in selective risk-taking rather than defensive positioning.
That backdrop supports opportunities in areas such as artificial intelligence, private credit, gold and select emerging markets, even as crypto’s near-term signals remain mixed.
VanEck said the breakdown of Bitcoin’s cycle complicates timing decisions for investors who rely on historical analogues, particularly those expecting a predictable post-halving rally.
Instead, crypto performance may increasingly be shaped by liquidity conditions, regulatory developments and broader risk sentiment.
AI And Related Themes Reprice After 2025 Volatility
Outside crypto, VanEck said the sharp selloff in certain AI-related stocks late last year has reset valuations to more attractive levels.
The firm said the correction occurred even as demand for compute capacity, AI infrastructure and productivity gains remained strong, improving the risk-reward profile for medium-term investors.
Adjacent themes, including nuclear power linked to AI-driven electricity demand, also repriced meaningfully in the second half of 2025. VanEck said those adjustments reduced excesses without undermining the long-term investment case.
Fewer Policy Shocks Expected In 2026
VanEck attributed much of its broader risk-on stance to improving visibility around fiscal and monetary policy.
While U.S. deficits remain elevated, the firm said they are shrinking as a share of GDP compared with pandemic-era peaks, helping stabilize longer-term interest rates.
On monetary policy, VanEck pointed to recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing current interest rate levels as “normal.”
The firm said that framing suggests markets should expect steady policy and modest adjustments rather than aggressive or destabilizing rate cuts.
That clarity, VanEck said, reduces tail risks and allows investors to focus more on fundamentals than policy surprises.
Gold And Income Assets Regain Appeal
VanEck reiterated its constructive stance on gold, describing the metal as increasingly functioning as a global monetary asset amid sustained central bank demand and a gradual shift toward a less dollar-centric world.
While gold appears technically extended, the firm said pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities rather than signs of weakening demand.
The firm also said business development companies experienced a difficult 2025 but now offer more attractive yields and valuations after credit fears were largely priced in.
Management companies tied to the sector are trading at levels VanEck described as more reasonable relative to long-term earnings power.