Crypto markets are closing out 2025 in a subdued state, with prices moving sideways and onchain activity cooling across major networks.
But beneath the holiday lull, technical indicators and positioning data suggest markets may be approaching a decisive inflection point heading into early 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) have traded largely flat in recent sessions as seasonal inactivity weighs on volumes.
According to onchain data, activity has slowed across most chains, reflecting consolidation rather than a broad exit from crypto markets. Analysts say this backdrop is masking a potentially pivotal setup for the first quarter of 2026.
Onchain Slowdown Reflects Consolidation, Not Capitulation
Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen, in a note sent to Yellow.com, said the late-December pullback in activity is consistent with a year-end cooldown rather than a breakdown in market structure.
He noted that active addresses, transactions and fees generated have broadly consolidated over the past 30 days, with chains such as Base seeing notable pullbacks in decentralized exchange volumes after a strong run earlier in the year.
Solana (SOL) continues to dominate onchain trading volumes despite a modest softening in user activity, while BNB Chain remains a distant second.
“Overall, trading activity hasn’t disappeared; it has simply slowed and become more selective as the year comes to a close,” Kennis said.
That selectivity, combined with muted retail engagement, has left markets quiet — but not directionless.
Bitcoin technicals point to coiled price action
According to a Fairlead Strategies report, Bitcoin is consolidating narrowly above rising cloud-based support near $84,400, a level that has strengthened over recent weeks.
Fairlead’s analysis shows short-term risk-reward skewed favorably, with daily momentum indicators still flashing bullish signals.
Also Read: AI Gave Crypto Scammers What They Always Needed: Authenticity At Scale A breakout above the 50-day moving average near $90,500 would serve as a near-term catalyst, potentially opening the door toward the top of Bitcoin’s weekly cloud, currently near $109,000.
Importantly, Fairlead highlighted a loss of intermediate-term downside momentum in Bitcoin’s weekly MACD histogram following oversold conditions, a technical pattern that has historically preceded rebounds.
Data suggests Bitcoin is “getting wound up” rather than breaking down, even as longer-term momentum remains neutral.
Ether And Altcoins Could Follow If Momentum Returns
Fairlead’s analysis also points to a potential shift beneath the surface of the broader crypto market.
While most major altcoins remain in the lagging quadrant relative to Bitcoin, they are showing reduced downside momentum, a setup that could allow rotation into altcoins if Bitcoin rallies.
Ether, in particular, appears positioned to outperform during a relief rally.
The Bitcoin-to-Ether ratio has flattened in recent weeks, and Fairlead noted that similar technical conditions preceded intermediate-term rallies in late 2024 and earlier in 2025.
However, analysts cautioned that volatility is likely to persist.
Fairlead warned that weakened long-term momentum could make the first half of 2026 unstable, with the possibility of a later cloud breakdown and a test of long-term Bitcoin support near $70,000.
Read Next: World’s Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder Adds More BTC As Treasury Strategy Accelerates