Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are approaching the end of the year facing a market structure defined less by momentum and more by supply, as analysts warn that Bitcoin’s rebounds remain capped by heavy overhead selling while Ether shows early signs of stabilization.
In a note sent to Yellow.com, analysts at Bitfinex said Bitcoin’s bounce from the low-$80,000 region has encountered a dense supply zone formed by investors who accumulated between roughly $94,000 and $120,000.
That concentration of holdings, they said, has created a top-heavy structure where rallies are repeatedly met with sell pressure.
The pattern resembles early bear-market phases seen in past cycles, when recovery attempts failed to gain sustained traction.
Bitcoin Faces Supply Ceiling
Bitfinex said downside risks remain elevated as long as Bitcoin trades below this overhead band and fails to reclaim key structural levels, particularly the short-term holder cost basis near $100,589.
On-chain data shows supply held at a loss has climbed to about 6.7 million bitcoin on a seven-day average basis, the highest level recorded in the current cycle.
The persistence of this metric since mid-November mirrors transitional periods observed at the onset of previous bear markets.
However, the firm noted that the current cycle also differs in important ways.
Since the introduction of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, similar setups in August 2024 and April 2025 ultimately resolved higher and led to new all-time highs.
Also Read: Why Crypto’s Next Cycle Will Be Driven By Balance Sheets, Not Speculation
Bitfinex said the next phase will depend on whether fresh demand can absorb the overhead supply now dominating rallies.
Ether Shows Signs of Stabilization
A separate technical outlook from Fairlead Strategies presents a more neutral near-term picture for both assets.
Fairlead said Bitcoin remains above key cloud-based support near $80,600, which defines its cyclical uptrend, and short-term indicators point to an oversold bounce that could test resistance near the 50-day moving average around $92,700.
The firm upgraded its intermediate-term bias to neutral but warned that a monthly sell signal could pressure Bitcoin in the first half of 2026, with downside risk toward $70,000 if weakness resumes.
For Ether, Fairlead noted stabilization above support near $2,750, supported by improving momentum indicators.
A breakout above $3,100 would strengthen the case for a corrective low and open upside toward the 200-day moving average near $3,570.
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