XRP (XRP) is trading 62% below its July record near $3.65, weighed down by macro noise and thin spot demand, an analyst said.
Marex Analyst Flags Two Forces
The token sits in a tight band between $1.35 and $1.45, Louis De Backer, a crypto trading analyst at financial services firm Marex, told DL News.
He pointed to macro noise and flow quality as the main constraints. Talks between Washington and Tehran remain stalled, and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has lifted Brent crude above $114 a barrel.
Elevated energy prices reduce the odds of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, a known headwind for risk assets. In that environment, capital defaults to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), De Backer said.
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Spot Depth And XRP's Range
Liquidity is the second issue. When derivatives flows dominate thin spot books, rallies fade quickly, and XRP needs steady spot buying to break above $1.45 and hold there, the analyst added.
Not everyone expects a recovery. Ric Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Engines, said in March he is unconvinced the token can reclaim its former stature.
Polymarket bettors largely agree, assigning a 13% chance of XRP hitting $3.60 before year-end and 61% odds it touches $1 first.
The token has spent most of 2026 grinding sideways. It opened the year near $2.41 in early January, slid to roughly $1.28 during the height of the Iran conflict in late February, and has hovered between $1.30 and $1.50 since.
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