XRP is trading at $2.63 as of October 29, experiencing a modest 0.4% decline over the past 24 hours despite strong underlying fundamentals that continue to attract institutional investors. The token has gained 9.4% over the past week but remains 27% below its July peak of $3.65, according to CoinCodex data.
The cryptocurrency now faces a critical juncture as technical indicators flash warning signals while whale accumulation and regulatory catalysts paint a bullish long-term picture.
The TD Sequential indicator, a momentum-based tool that tracks price exhaustion and trend reversals, has issued a new sell signal for XRP, according to analyst Ali Martinez on X. The indicator has proven remarkably accurate at identifying XRP's turning points over the past three months, raising concerns about near-term price action.
"The TD Sequential has been remarkably accurate at spotting XRP trend reversals over the past three months. It now flashes a sell signal," Martinez noted in his October 29 analysis.
The signal suggests XRP may struggle to break above the $2.70 resistance level in the immediate term, potentially triggering a consolidation phase after recent gains.
Trading Activity Shows Mixed Signals
CoinGlass data reveals that XRP open interest rose 0.42% to $4.55 billion, while derivatives volume fell 3.18% to $8.46 billion. Trading volume, however, increased 15% to $4.9 billion, indicating renewed market participation despite cautious short-term sentiment.
This combination of rising open interest and declining derivatives volume typically suggests traders are reducing aggressive short-term bets while maintaining their positions - often a precursor to significant price movement.
Whales Drive Major Accumulation
Despite bearish technical signals, large holders continue accumulating XRP aggressively. Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP added approximately 190 million tokens in late October, valued between $505 million and $560 million at current prices.
Additionally, addresses holding more than 10,000 XRP reached a record 317,500, demonstrating steady accumulation ahead of potential regulatory catalysts. This whale activity often indicates strong institutional conviction about XRP's medium to long-term prospects.
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator, which tracks capital inflows and outflows, has reached a three-month high, confirming growing investor participation across both whale and retail cohorts.
ETF Approval Odds Reach Near-Certainty
Market participants are pricing in extremely high odds for spot XRP ETF approvals. Polymarket prediction markets show approval odds exceeding 99% before the end of 2025, while Bloomberg ETF analysts estimate 95% probability or higher.
The optimism stems from multiple factors. First, the SEC is reviewing six spot XRP ETF applications with decision deadlines falling between October 18-24, from major asset managers including Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and WisdomTree.
Second, the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF launched in July 2025, attracting $37.7 million in first-day volume—the highest for any ETF launch this year. This demonstrated strong demand from both retail and institutional investors.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas recently suggested the odds of crypto spot ETF approvals, including XRP, are "essentially 100%" following a subtle shift in SEC guidance interpretation.
Industry experts project that successful ETF launches could attract between $4 billion and $10 billion in first-year inflows, potentially driving significant price appreciation.
Ripple's Banking License Application Advances
Ripple's expansion into traditional banking infrastructure adds another layer of bullish sentiment. The company filed an application for a national trust bank charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on July 2, 2025, with the public volume released in August.
The proposed Ripple National Trust Bank would be headquartered in New York and operate as a wholly owned subsidiary of Ripple Labs. If approved, the charter would allow Ripple to manage stablecoin reserves and provide fiduciary services under federal oversight, according to PYMNTS reporting.
Based on the OCC's typical 120-day review period, a decision could come by late October or early November 2025. Approval would represent a watershed moment for crypto-native companies seeking to operate within U.S. regulatory frameworks.
Ripple also applied for a Federal Reserve master account through its subsidiary Standard Custody & Trust Company. This access would allow Ripple to hold RLUSD stablecoin reserves directly with the Fed and provide an additional layer of security and legitimacy.
$1 Billion Acquisition Expands Corporate Reach
On October 16, Ripple announced the $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury, a global leader in treasury management systems with over four decades of experience. The deal immediately opens up the multi-trillion-dollar corporate treasury market and provides access to Fortune 500 clients.
GTreasury serves over 1,000 customers across 160 countries, bringing decades of treasury expertise to Ripple's digital asset infrastructure. The acquisition marks Ripple's third major purchase in 2025, following the $1.25 billion acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road and the $200 million purchase of stablecoin platform Rail.
"For too long, money has been stuck in slow, outdated payments systems and infrastructure, causing unnecessary delays, high costs, and roadblocks to entering new markets," said Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse in the announcement.
The combined capabilities will enable treasury teams to unlock idle capital through the repo market, move money instantly 24/7/365, and manage digital assets including stablecoins and tokenized deposits at scale.
Technical Analysis and Price Targets
XRP's daily chart shows consolidation between $2.34 and $2.69, according to TradingView technical analysis. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and a potential breakout in either direction.
The Relative Strength Index sits at 50-51, indicating neutral momentum. The MACD displays a slight bullish crossover, but the signal remains weak. Short-term moving averages (10-30 days) show buying pressure, while longer-term averages (50-100 days) remain bearish, highlighting a cautious setup.
Key support levels lie at $2.40 and $2.34, with a break below potentially confirming the TD Sequential sell signal and pushing prices toward $2.20. On the upside, sustained movement above $2.70 could open the path to $3.00 and a potential retest of the July highs near $3.65.
Final thoughts
XRP finds itself at a crossroads between short-term technical weakness and powerful medium-term catalysts. The TD Sequential sell signal and narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest near-term consolidation or modest correction may be necessary before the next leg higher.
However, the combination of aggressive whale accumulation, near-certain ETF approvals, Ripple's banking license application, and strategic acquisitions creates a compelling bullish case for 2025 and beyond. Analysts project prices could reach $5-$10 if major catalysts align, with more optimistic forecasts reaching $15-$33 based on historical rally patterns.
The coming weeks will be critical as regulatory decisions unfold and technical patterns resolve. Traders should monitor the $2.64-$2.70 range for signs of breakout or breakdown, while long-term investors may view any pullback as an accumulation opportunity ahead of transformative regulatory approvals.