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Wildfire contracts stay live on major platforms while relief from a warming Pacific holds off until 2027. (Image: Shutterstock)

Prediction Markets Get Another Fire Season As Very Strong El Nino Odds Hit 81%

A very strong El Nino carries 81% odds by December, yet forecasters say Western wildfire risk stays elevated through 2026, another season for prediction market traders. Key Points: NOAA forecasters now put 81% odds on a very strong El Nino between October and December 2026. Agency research found El

Chicago's second-leading scorer is back on a two-year deal, with the Blackhawks still outside the leading group on Kalshi's Cup board. (Image: Shutterstock)

Kane Signs An $8M Chicago Deal, But Kalshi Still Ranks Florida First

Patrick Kane is returning to the Chicago Blackhawks on a two-year contract carrying an $8 million annual salary-cap hit, the team said Thursday. Key Points: The deal is worth $16 million in total and carries a full no-movement clause through the 2027-28 season. Kane had 57 points in 67 games last se

Prediction market boards in Blaine now show a 3M Open field missing the star the tournament had spent 10 days promoting. (Image: Shutterstock)

Jordan Spieth Exits The 3M Open, Leaving Kalshi And Polymarket A Thinner Field

Jordan Spieth withdrew from this week's $8.8 million 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, thinning a field that prediction market traders now price without him. Key Points: Spieth was listed as a late withdrawal from the 3M Open field released Jul. 17, with no reason made public. Scottie Scheffler said Wedne

Kalshi and Polymarket logged record World Cup volume as Wawrinka reached Estoril for his closing clay-court appearance. (Image: Shutterstock)

Wawrinka's Last Clay Match Arrives Inside A 3M-User Prediction Market Boom

Stan Wawrinka plays his final ATP clay-court match Tuesday at Estoril, days after Kalshi drew 3 million new users on record World Cup trading. Key Points: Wawrinka faces Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Estoril Open first round, the last clay-court event of his career. Kalshi signed up 3 million users

Prediction market odds sit at 18% for Marvel's December release even after its trailer set viewing records. (Image: Shutterstock)

Avengers: Doomsday Trailer Hits 33M Views, But Traders Still Bet Against It

Marvel's first full Avengers: Doomsday trailer drew more than 33 million YouTube views in under a day, yet Polymarket traders still price the film at 18%. Key Points: The first full Avengers: Doomsday trailer arrived Monday, with tickets going on sale the same day and a theatrical release set for De

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