Marvel's first full Avengers: Doomsday trailer drew more than 33 million YouTube views in under a day, yet Polymarket traders still price the film at 18%.
Key Points:
- The first full Avengers: Doomsday trailer arrived Monday, with tickets going on sale the same day and a theatrical release set for Dec. 18.
- Polymarket puts the film at 18% to be 2026's highest-grossing movie, well behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 59%.
- The same platform gives Doomsday a 75% chance at the year's best opening weekend, pointing to timing rather than doubt about demand.
Marvel Studios Releases Full Doomsday Trailer
Marvel Studios unveiled the trailer on Monday morning and opened ticket sales the same day, tied to a new premium large-format certification the company calls Infinity Vision.
The studio has set a theatrical release for Dec. 18, five months out. Footage introduces Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, squaring off against heroes pulled from three separate universes in what Marvel bills as an existential threat.
The clip followed months of character teasers.
YouTube views reached past 33 million inside 24 hours, and the trailer collected roughly a million of them in its first half hour. Anthony Russo and Joe Russo directed a cast that gathers the Avengers, the Fantastic Four, the X-Men and characters from Wakanda. The film also closes out a multiverse storyline the studio has run since Endgame, with Avengers: Secret Wars following in 2027.
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Polymarket Odds Favor Spider-Man Over Doomsday
Polymarket's market on the year's highest-grossing movie tells a colder story, with Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which opens Jul. 31, sitting at 59% while Doomsday holds 18%.
The Doomsday contract has drawn about $310,000 in volume, the most of any title in a market that has traded $7.26 million since it opened in November.
The gap comes down to the calendar rather than the footage.
That contract settles on domestic calendar gross using Box Office Mojo figures through Dec. 31, and dates outside 2026 do not count toward any film's total. Marvel gets less than two weeks inside the scoring window, while the Spider-Man release collects five full months.
Opening Weekend Bets And Avengers Box Office History
Separate Polymarket contracts still give Doomsday a 71% chance of posting 2026's best domestic opening week and a 75% chance at the best opening weekend, which suggests traders doubt the timing rather than the film.
Marvel arrives at this release with an uneven recent record.
The four previous Avengers films earned more than $7.7 billion combined, and Endgame still ranks as the second highest-grossing movie ever, but three MCU titles released last year underperformed.
Four character teasers that preceded Monday's trailer tallied 1.02 billion combined views, a run that lifted expectations well before the full footage arrived.
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