Polymarket traders now price a 37% chance that Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" opens above $115 million domestically, the strongest of six outcomes on the board.
Key Points:
- The opening weekend market has drawn about $183,000 in volume, with the above-$115 million bracket leading at 37%.
- A separate contract prices a 90-plus Rotten Tomatoes score at 58% and a Best Picture nomination at 91%.
- Traders make The Odyssey the 53% favorite to collect the most nominations at the 99th Academy Awards.
Odyssey Box Office Odds Favor A $115M Opening
The contract opened Jun. 23 and has since drawn roughly $183,000 in volume, with about $53,000 of liquidity sitting behind it. The top bracket shows a 37% probability, up from roughly 27% two days earlier. Below it sit the $105 million to $115 million band at 23.5% and the $85 million to $95 million band at 16%.
No outcome has a majority.
Payouts hinge on final three-day domestic figures for Jul. 17 through Jul. 19, taken from The Numbers rather than studio estimates. Volume, liquidity and open interest all climbed as release week arrived, according to data synced Monday.
Advance sales explain much of that confidence. The film has sold more than 150,000 opening weekend tickets, roughly double Oppenheimer's pace at the same stage, with previews alone projected between $15 million and $20 million. Universal Pictures is releasing the Matt Damon epic as the first commercial feature shot entirely on IMAX film cameras, and only 24 U.S. theaters can screen the 70mm version.
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Rotten Tomatoes And Oscar Contracts Split The Money
A second contract asks where the Rotten Tomatoes score lands when it locks at 10 a.m. ET on Jul. 20, and traders put a 70-plus verdict at 98%. The 90-plus line is the real fight, hovering near 58% as critics who attended early screenings hailed the film.
Awards money leans the same way. The Odyssey is favored at 53% to collect the most nominations at the 99th Academy Awards, ahead of "Dune: Messiah" at 32%, on roughly $27,000 of volume. A separate contract prices a Best Picture nomination at 91%.
Commercial dominance is another matter. In the market on 2026's highest grossing release, "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" leads at 73%, and Nolan's epic sits well behind that leader.
Nolan Tracking Gap Explains The Wide Spread
Studio tracking has projected an $80 million to $100 million domestic start, while an industry forecasting panel pegged the range higher, at $100 million to $120 million.
That $40 million gap is about two Polymarket brackets wide, which explains the crowded board. Both figures predate the full review embargo.
Nolan has beaten his own tracking before. "Oppenheimer" was projected at $40 million to $50 million in July 2023. It opened to $82.4 million and finished above $330 million domestically on a 93% Tomatometer. His record domestic debut is still "The Dark Knight Rises," which took $160.9 million in 2012.
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