Bitcoin (BTC) futures on the CME have seen their yield curve compress sharply while open interest has fallen roughly 47% from peak levels, according to a new research report released Feb. 26, signaling what analysts describe as an ongoing and significant deleveraging cycle across the derivatives market.
What Happened: CME Futures Signal Leverage Reset
The CryptoQuant report found that the CME Bitcoin futures yield curve has shifted meaningfully lower compared to both one year ago and late 2025, with the steepest declines concentrated in longer-dated maturities. That flattening reflects weakening demand for leveraged long positions and a shrinking forward risk premium.
The yield curve slope has trended lower since 2025, mirroring patterns that preceded bear markets in 2019 and 2022. The slope, however, remains positive — a distinction CryptoQuant flagged as significant.
Open interest on CME Bitcoin futures has contracted by approximately 47% from its peak, a drawdown comparable to the roughly 45% decline during the 2022 bear market. The research characterized the current environment as "mid-cycle bearish or consolidative," noting that a definitive capitulation phase has likely not yet occurred.
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Why It Matters: No Capitulation Yet
The term structure of CME Bitcoin futures remains in contango, which stands in contrast to conditions at prior cycle bottoms. In both Dec. 2018 and Dec. 2022, market troughs coincided with negative basis and downward-sloping curves — indicators of acute stress and forced position unwinds.
The current curve's upward slope suggests the market is undergoing a gradual positioning reset rather than the kind of forced liquidation event that has historically marked durable macro bottoms.
While the reduction in leverage may help stabilize market structure over time, CryptoQuant's analysis indicates the deleveraging process is not yet complete.
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