Bitcoin gained approximately 3% over recent trading sessions, but technical indicators suggest consolidation may precede a potential breakout toward $104,000. The daily chart shows a developing cup-and-handle pattern, a formation that typically signals continuation after completion.
What Happened: Technical Pattern Development
The latest daily candle closed higher but formed a long upper wick, indicating seller resistance at elevated price levels. TradingView charts display a rounded bottom structure resembling the cup portion of the pattern, while recent price action suggests the handle formation may be underway.
On-chain data from Glassnode shows the Hodler Net Position Change metric reveals resumed accumulation since Dec. 26, though buying activity remains measured.
Long-term holders added approximately 12,349 BTC on Jan. 4, representing a 93% decline from the late-November selling peak of roughly 185,451 BTC.
Binance perpetual liquidation data shows long positions hold approximately $2.24 billion in leverage compared to $416 million in short positions. This five-to-one ratio creates vulnerability to price pullbacks that could trigger cascading liquidations.
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Why It Matters: Declining Selling Pressure
Exchange inflow data from CryptoQuant demonstrates a substantial reduction in selling pressure. Total exchange inflows dropped from approximately 43,940 BTC on Dec. 31 to roughly 3,970 BTC by Jan. 5, a decline exceeding 90%.
Santiment data tracking Spent Coins Age Bands shows on-chain activity decreased 80% during the same period, falling from around 28,033 BTC to approximately 5,644 BTC.
Both young and old coins are moving less frequently, indicating holders are maintaining positions rather than distributing into strength.
The pattern projects a measured move target near $104,000 from the current neckline, representing roughly 12% upside potential. Bitcoin must hold above $89,450 to maintain the bullish structure, while a daily close above $94,710 would confirm breakout validity.
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