Recent analysis projects Bitcoin could reach two specific price targets before the cryptocurrency enters a prolonged bear market. The predictions come as Bitcoin trades well below its $126,000 all-time high reached in Oct. 2024, with technical indicators suggesting a counter-trend rally may be forming.
What Happened: Price Targets Identified
TradingShot's analysis identifies $95,850 and $106,450 as "realistic" bullish targets for Bitcoin despite the broader consensus that a bear market has begun. The analyst notes the current market structure mirrors the decline between Jan. 20 and Apr. 7, with both periods showing a "Channel Up" formation and completing a 1-Day MACD Bullish Cross.
The first target at $95,850 aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which served as the rejection point for Bitcoin's Apr. 2025 rally.
The second target at $106,450 corresponds with the 1D MA200 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
"This is where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is, which was also Target 2 for the April fractal and where the second consolidation took place," TradingShot wrote.
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Why It Matters: Counter-Trend Rally
The analysis suggests Bitcoin has not yet entered a new bull cycle but remains in what traders call a counter-trend rally phase.
Such rallies occurred during the January-April period, when technical formations led to brief recoveries before downward pressure resumed. The Lower Highs trendline represents a critical test point, with the second target positioned outside this formation but still within reach if Bitcoin makes contact with key moving averages.
TradingShot's projections do not contradict the bear market thesis but indicate the decline may unfold through multiple phases rather than a straight drop. The completion of technical patterns similar to earlier 2025 movements provides the basis for these short-term bullish targets.
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