Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced 24% off its February low near $60,000, but a CryptoQuant analyst warns the recovery still carries the fingerprints of a bear market rally rather than a clean trend reversal.
Maartun Flags BTC Rally Risk
CryptoQuant contributor Maartun laid out the case in an Apr. 20 video flagged by NewsBTC. He said long-term holders are absorbing supply while short-term traders and whales continue to sell into the rally.
Over the past 30 days, long-term holder balances have grown by roughly 354,000 BTC.
Maartun called that figure structural accumulation, noting coins are being pulled out of active circulation.
He paired it with a rapid $2.66 billion capital raise by Strategy, including $1.56 billion on Apr. 14 alone, that still failed to produce a stronger price response.
Short-term holders, meanwhile, have moved around 60,000 BTC to exchanges while SOPR sits below one, meaning they are exiting at a loss. Wallets holding more than 100 BTC have also stepped up exchange inflows, a pattern Maartun linked to active distribution.
Also Read: Crypto Futures Wipeout: $197M Liquidated As BTC Climbs Above $76K
Why The Setup Still Matters
Price action sits below the short-term holder realized price near $83,000, a level Maartun treats as the market's key pivot. BeInCrypto separately reported that CryptoQuant sees the Traders' On-Chain Realized Price at $76,800 as an additional ceiling on relief rallies.
For now, both gates remain shut.
Maartun described the market as balanced but not yet bullish. The structure is improving, he said, yet the rally has not earned the benefit of the doubt.
Bitcoin has been grinding through a shallow cycle drawdown of about 50%, milder than past crashes. Q1 closed with three consecutive red months, the worst first quarter since 2018, before this month's bounce lifted BTC off the floor.
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