Bitcoin (BTC) fell to an 11-day low of $63,414 on Tuesday as traders positioned for a Federal Reserve rate decision that markets no longer view as settled.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin dropped as much as 2.3% in early Asian trading, its weakest level since Jul. 16, while Ether lost 3.6%.
- Prediction markets put the odds of a quarter-point Fed hike near 27%, with more than $140 million wagered across two platforms.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $465.26 million on Jul. 23 and Jul. 24, ending a seven-session inflow streak.
Bitcoin Price Slips As Fed Meeting Opens
The drop landed in early Asian hours, with Bitcoin sliding to its weakest level since Jul. 16. Ether (ETH) lost 3.6% over the same stretch, and XRP (XRP) shed roughly 4.4%. The Federal Open Market Committee opens two days of talks Tuesday and publishes its statement at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, with Chair Kevin Warsh speaking half an hour later.
Institutional money had already started backing away before this week. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net outflows of $465.26 million on Jul. 23 and Jul. 24, snapping a seven-session inflow run, with BlackRock's IBIT responsible for nearly $415 million of that total.
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Caroline Mauron Flags $62,000 Support Level
Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said Bitcoin is under pressure as the odds of a hike climb and worries build over AI-related credit risk. She pointed to $62,000 as the next level to watch. Strong support, she said, sits closer to $60,000.
Citadel Securities expects the Fed to raise rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, a call that sits well outside the market consensus. Polymarket traders assigned a 73.4% probability to no change and 26.6% to an increase, while Kalshi put the odds at 73% and 28% across more than $140 million in combined volume.
A hold alone would not automatically lift crypto. The Fed kept its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% in June, yet the restrictive tone that came with it helped erase roughly $122 million in leveraged positions inside four hours. Traders also go into Wednesday without a fresh print on the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, which arrives a day after the decision.
Coinglass data showed 118,449 traders liquidated for $437.94 million in a single 24-hour window last week, a reminder of how thin the cushion under leveraged positions has become.
Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia, said he stays neutral on Bitcoin until the price closes decisively above its 200-day simple moving average, now at $72,001.
Bitcoin Price Swings Since The October Peak
Bitcoin set its record near $126,000 in October 2025 and has since surrendered close to half of that value. It sank below $58,000 on Jul. 1 for a 21-month low, then climbed back above $66,500 three weeks later.
The coin opened 2026 above $93,000, which leaves it down more than 30% for the year despite July's partial recovery off the low.
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