Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $74,427 after the U.S. Treasury expanded long-dated bond buybacks, prompting VanEck to argue the cryptocurrency is again trading as a hedge against dollar weakness.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin reached $74,427 after the Treasury raised its long-dated bond buyback ceiling from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
- VanEck’s Matthew Sigel said fiscal concerns and dollar weakness, not CLARITY Act expectations, better explain the rally.
- Bitcoin’s past correlation with stocks during market stress complicates the claim that it is a reliable hedge.
Bitcoin Treasury Move
The Treasury doubled its long-dated bond buyback ceiling from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, a change that compressed yields and supported a broader risk-on move. Bitcoin climbed with that shift, while the rally also produced a major short squeeze.
Roughly $3 billion in forced short liquidations amplified the move, adding momentum as Bitcoin pushed above $74,000. The liquidations came during the broader risk-on response that followed the Treasury announcement, which had compressed yields and shifted attention toward dollar weakness. Sigel said the price action reflects concern over U.S. fiscal policy rather than enthusiasm around the CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill still moving through Congress.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said he expects the bill to secure 60 Senate votes, while prediction markets assign only a slim chance that it becomes law this year. Sigel argues that gap helps show why the latest Bitcoin rally is being driven by something other than pending crypto legislation.
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VanEck Hedge Case
Sigel told CNBC: “Bitcoin is one of the best hedges you can find on that dynamic.” His argument is that pressure on U.S. finances and the dollar can strengthen demand for a scarce asset outside the traditional monetary system. The thesis is familiar, but Bitcoin’s record remains uneven.
Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities rose during the 2020 COVID crash and again through the 2022 rate-hiking cycle, rather than falling during those periods of market stress. Academic research has documented that pattern.
Satoshi Nakamoto framed Bitcoin as a fixed-supply alternative to a financial system dependent on central bank money creation in the 2008 white paper, but later market cycles have repeatedly shown Bitcoin trading like a risk asset when liquidity tightens. That history keeps the hedge argument open.
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