Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern may be breaking down as institutional investors accumulate supply through spot ETFs, according to Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood. The shift could reduce price volatility and reshape investment strategies built around halving events.
What Happened: Institutional Accumulation
Wood argues that large financial firms and spot ETFs are absorbing coins that previously cycled through retail traders' hands. The Apr. 20, 2024 halving reduced miner rewards to 3.125 BTC, cutting daily supply by roughly 450 Bitcoin.
Some analysts consider that reduction modest against the asset's market capitalization and the billions flowing into ETFs.
Ark has purchased shares in Coinbase, Circle and its own Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), reinforcing the trend toward institutional ownership.
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Why It Matters: Cycle Disruption
The traditional pattern—rallies following halvings, then 75% to 90% crashes—faces growing skepticism from banks and crypto firms. Standard Chartered slashed its 2025 price target from $200,000 to $100,000, citing ETF inflows that dilute the halving's impact.
Bitwise's Matt Hougan and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju contend institutional flows have altered or eliminated the classic rhythm.
Markets peaked near $122,000 in July, and analysts now project future drawdowns between 25% and 40% rather than the severe declines of past cycles.
Glassnode data shows long-term holder behavior still resembles previous market swings, suggesting the cycle remains relevant within longer trends. Wood indicated volatility is declining and markets may have already bottomed weeks ago, while macro strategist Lyn Alden forecasts Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 by 2026 but warns the path will be uneven.
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