Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has dismissed conspiracy theories blaming firms like Jane Street and Binance for Bitcoin (BTC) price declines, arguing instead that long-term holders reducing exposure through spot sales, leveraged position closures and covered call writing are the actual forces behind the current downturn.
What Happened: Hougan Dismisses Manipulation Claims
Hougan addressed social media speculation that Bitcoin's drop resulted from coordinated moves by major trading firms. He called the real explanation "far more boring" than the theories suggest.
"The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else," he said.
The Bitwise CIO attributed the selling pressure to three specific factors: the four-year market cycle theory, growing concerns about quantum computing vulnerabilities and capital rotation from crypto into artificial intelligence startups. Christopher Wood, Jefferies' global head of equity strategy, has already removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio over quantum concerns, while Kevin O'Leary warned that institutional investors are capping Bitcoin allocations at roughly 3% until the industry addresses the threat.
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Why It Matters: Recovery Timeline Uncertain
Hougan said most of the selling is likely finished and that Bitcoin is in the "process of bottoming," adding that "this is a classic crypto winter and there will be a classic crypto spring." He previously stated the current crypto winter began in Jan. 2025, and given the historical 13-month average duration, the end could be approaching.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo offered a less optimistic view, cautioning that deteriorating spot and futures liquidity could limit any near-term recovery.
Woo placed the end of bearish conditions in Q4 2026, with bullish momentum potentially returning in Q1 or Q2 2027, and noted that $45,000 would represent a typical bear market bottom — with $30,000 as fallback support if global macro conditions break down. Data from CryptoQuant supports a similar timeline, mapping past cycle structures to project a bottoming window between June and December 2026.
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