Bitcoin's (BTC) options market has reached its most extreme defensive positioning since the FTX collapse in November 2022, even as no comparable fundamental crisis exists in either crypto markets or the broader economy, according to Binance Research's weekly report published Thursday.
Separately, the ongoing divergence between Bitcoin and rising global M2 money supply has now extended beyond any prior episode in the dataset's history - a gap that Binance analysts attribute to three overlapping structural distortions rather than a single catalyst.
The report covers the week ending Feb. 25, 2026, a period defined by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs, NVIDIA's Q4 earnings, and continued weakness in technology-adjacent assets including cryptocurrency.
Options Hedging at a Three-Year Extreme
The BTC options 25-delta skew index - which measures the relative cost of downside put protection versus upside calls - has hit its most negative reading since November 2022.
Binance Research notes that the current environment lacks any equivalent fundamental shock: no major exchange collapse, no regulatory crisis, no systemic failure.
The report argues this degree of hedging appears disproportionate, suggesting the market may be closer to a sentiment trough than a precipice. Corroborating this, Bitcoin's Realized Profit/Loss ratio has fallen below 1.0 for the first time since 2023, typically a hallmark of forced capitulation rather than orderly distribution.
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The M2 Divergence and Who Owns Bitcoin Now
Since 2015, Bitcoin and global M2 have diverged 23 times - historically resolving within one to two months on average.
The current divergence has extended far beyond that window.
Binance identifies three compounding distortions: dollar weakness mechanically inflating the dollar-denominated M2 aggregate without reflecting real liquidity growth; the post-ETF institutional ownership structure now classifying BTC alongside software equities in risk management systems; and elevated real interest rates keeping large liquidity pools parked in money market funds.
13F Data: Who Sold, Who Bought
Q4 13F filings show a net institutional outflow of roughly 25,000 Bitcoin-equivalent from ETF holdings.
But the breakdown is asymmetric: investment advisors and hedge funds accounted for the majority of sales, while governments, holding companies, and private equity were net buyers.
BTC ETH week-over-week showed Bitcoin down 21.8% and Ethereum (ETH) down 30.4% on the week, against gold's 4.24% gain - a performance gap that tracks closely with the software index (IGV) rather than any monetary metric.