Bitcoin volatility has declined below that of Nvidia stock in 2025, according to Bitwise, marking a shift driven by institutional capital inflows through exchange-traded funds. The cryptocurrency rose 68% from an April low of $75,000 to an early October peak of $126,000, while Nvidia swung 120% from roughly $94 to $207 during the same period.
What Happened: Volatility Comparison
Bitwise reported Bitcoin will likely remain less volatile than Nvidia through 2026.
The asset manager attributed the change to institutional inflows and spot ETF products, which have brought larger, steadier investors into the market.
Traditional financial institutions including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch could enter the space as new participants, Bitwise said. The firm expects allocations to spot crypto ETFs to increase and projects Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026, breaking from historical four-year cycles.
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Why It Matters: Market Pressure
Long-term Bitcoin holders have sold heavily in recent months, complicating bullish forecasts. K33 Research found approximately 1.6 million coins that had been dormant for at least two years moved since early 2023, representing roughly $140 billion in value.
Nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin that had been idle for over one year returned to the market in 2025 alone, according to K33 and CryptoQuant data.
CryptoQuant identified one of the heaviest long-term holder distributions in more than five years during the past 30 days.
Chris Newhouse, director of research at Ergonia, described the selling pattern as a "slow bleed" caused by steady sales into thin bids, creating downward pressure that proves difficult to reverse.
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