Marvel cast David Jonsson as Black Panther and Ryan Gosling as Ghost Rider on Saturday, two reveals prediction markets priced wrong or not at all.
Key Points:
- Marvel Studios named David Jonsson as T'Challa's son in Black Panther 3, dated for Dec. 15, 2028.
- Polymarket's casting market listed only John David Washington and Damson Idris, and neither got the part.
- No exchange carried a contract on Ryan Gosling's Ghost Rider casting, despite years of public speculation.
Polymarket Odds Never Listed David Jonsson
Marvel Studios confirmed the casting during its Hall H panel at San Diego Comic-Con. Ryan Coogler returns to direct, and the film reaches theaters Dec. 15, 2028. Jonsson, 32, plays the grown son of T'Challa, the king the late Chadwick Boseman originated.
Letitia Wright and Winston Duke return to the cast, and Denzel Washington makes his Marvel debut in a part Coogler wrote for him.
Polymarket opened its market on the role May 28 and priced only two candidates, neither of whom Marvel chose. Washington held 54% and Damson Idris 26% on Saturday, against total volume of $1,107, and most of that money sat on the outcome that no actor would be named this year at all.
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Kalshi Traders Swung Toward Letitia Wright
Kalshi ran a narrower question about the next film's main protagonist. Wright, who has carried the mantle since 2022, traded at 97% on Saturday after a 59-point jump. Denzel Washington, whose casting Marvel had flagged well in advance, dropped 58 points to 4%, and John David Washington fell to 1% on the day.
That contract has drawn $3,450 since it opened, roughly three times the Polymarket total. Books that thin move on a few hundred dollars, so the quotes tracked casting rumors and fan preference rather than any informed read on Marvel's slate.
Polymarket advertises 94% accuracy a month before resolution, a figure drawn mostly from its politics, sports and economics books, where public data accumulates steadily. Entertainment casting sits at the other end of that spectrum. Studios guard the answer, only a few people hold it before the reveal, and traders are left pricing secondhand scoops against each other.
Ryan Gosling Ghost Rider Drew No Market
The same panel gave Ryan Gosling the role of Ghost Rider, with Deadpool & Wolverine director Shawn Levy attached and a 2028 release date.
Marvel announced that casting earlier in the day, and neither exchange carried a contract on the question despite years of speculation.
One entertainment site called the Jonsson reveal a bolt from the blue, and set it against the Gosling news as the more expected of the two. Gosling has pushed for the part in public since 2022, when he named Ghost Rider as the Marvel character he wanted. Kevin Feige responded warmly at Comic-Con that year, and in March the actor said discussions with the studio had taken place.
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