Bernstein estimates prediction market trading volumes will hit $1 trillion by 2030, driven by a fourfold surge in activity this year alone.
Prediction Markets Boom
The investment bank said in a Tuesday report that Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, have already generated about $60 billion in volume year-to-date. That figure exceeds the $51 billion total for all of 2025.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani projects 2026 volumes will reach $240 billion, a 370% jump from last year. He cited a compound annual growth rate of roughly 80% between 2025 and 2030 as the basis for his $1 trillion estimate.
Bank of America analyst Julie Hoover called Kalshi one of the fastest-growing non-AI companies in the U.S.
Weekly trading volume on the platform, which controls more than 90% of the domestic prediction market, has climbed from about $100 million a year ago to over $3 billion today.
Chhugani said blockchain tokenization and crypto (crypto) integration are fueling liquidity. He expects the institutional market to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct exposure to events. Sports contracts currently make up more than 60% of volume, but he sees that share halving by 2030.
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Prediction Markets Valuation
Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) serve as the main public market proxies for the sector. Robinhood's prediction markets hub is now a year old, generating $350 million in annual recurring revenue and accounting for roughly 30% of Kalshi's total volume.
New entrants are also moving in. DraftKings and Underdog have either launched or are building their own prediction market verticals, Hoover said.
Regulatory battles remain a near-term risk. Legal action is pending in 14 states, with four congressional bills also in play over concerns about insider trading. Some states have cited authority over sports betting, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has claimed exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.
Prediction markets first saw a major volume spike during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Activity then expanded in 2025 as sports, crypto and macroeconomic contracts drew broader participation, setting the stage for this year's rapid growth.
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