Prediction market transactions topped 192 million in Mar. 2026, setting an all-time record as monthly users surged 118% year over year and notional trading volume neared $23.89 billion, according to data tracked by Dune.
Prediction Market Records
The milestone reflects a sector that has grown well beyond its origins as a niche experiment. Monthly active users reached 865,411, up from 396,642 in Mar. 2025.
Notional volume climbed roughly 1,107% compared with the same month last year. Still, the Mar. figure trails January's all-time high of $26.7 billion by about 10.7%.
On Polymarket, sports, crypto and politics drove the largest share of weekly volume. Kalshi saw its exotics category overtake politics in late February, according to Dune data, pushing it into the platform's top three categories by weekly volume.
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Retail Trading Patterns
Behavioral data points to a structural shift in how participants use these platforms. On Polymarket, more than 57% of users trade less than $100 per position.
The average active participant executes roughly 25 trades per day. That frequency mirrors patterns seen in retail stock trading rather than traditional betting.
Regulatory Pressure
Despite the rapid growth, prediction markets face mounting scrutiny from lawmakers.
Multiple bills were introduced in Mar. alone, targeting issues from insider trading to bans on war-related contracts.
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