Bitcoin has reclaimed the $88,000 level but remains trapped below $90,000 resistance as short-term holders trade underwater. On-chain data shows new demand entering the market remains weak, with the Short-Term Holder Realized Price trending lower since mid-October.
What Happened: Short-Term Holders Underwater
Axel Adler's analysis shows Bitcoin trading consistently below the STH Realized Price since October. The weekly change in this metric has stayed negative and recently reached local lows, signaling short-term holders continue redistributing coins at lower prices rather than accumulating.
Price performance across timeframes remains mixed. Bitcoin is up roughly 0.9% on the week and 2.3% on the month, but the 90-day performance stands at negative 26.7%.
Adler's forecast model points to continued downside pressure, with an expected weekly decline around 3% if current conditions persist. The declining STH Realized Price lowers the resistance ceiling but underscores persistent weakness in new demand.
Also Read: Jesse Eckel Forecasts Bitcoin Will Peak Between $170K And $250K During 2026
Why It Matters: Bear Market Calls
A growing number of analysts are calling for a bear market to unfold in 2026, arguing current structure lacks conditions for renewed bullish phase.
Adler notes this environment reflects pressure from above rather than outright capitulation, with Bitcoin trapped in a prolonged stress regime where confidence erodes gradually and rallies are sold into rather than followed through.
The weekly chart shows Bitcoin trading near the $88,000–$89,000 zone since late November.
While price remains above its 200-week moving average, the 50-week moving average has flattened and acts as immediate resistance, aligning with the broader supply zone between $90,000 and $95,000.
After a surge in activity during the sharp correction from October highs, recent weeks show declining volume.
Technically, as long as Bitcoin holds above the rising 100-week moving average, downside risk appears structurally contained, but failure to reclaim the 50-week average keeps the market vulnerable to extended consolidation.
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