Bitcoin faces mounting pressure as on-chain data reveals an unusual spike in short-term holder supply coinciding with price weakness near $87,000. Pseudonymous analyst Sunny Mom says the pattern signals continued bearish sentiment rather than the typical bullish accumulation seen during similar metrics shifts.
What Happened: Short-Term Supply Expansion
Mom highlighted Bitcoin's HODL waves in a QuickTake post on Dec. 27, showing short-term holder supply expanding as prices fall—a reversal of historical patterns that typically precede rallies. Coins held for less than 155 days now represent a growing share of total supply, but the analyst describes this as "passive bag-holding" rather than fresh capital entering the market.
Investors who bought during October's rally to $120,000 and November dip buyers now sit on unrealized losses, creating selling pressure at each price recovery attempt.
Mom explains these holders try to exit at breakeven, turning the expanding short-term cohort into a price ceiling rather than support.
Net Realized Loss spikes have repeated since October liquidations, indicating capitulation is underway as investors lock in losses after months of waiting.
The analyst describes the process as a "dull knife" finally cutting deep, forcing out weaker hands through prolonged exhaustion rather than a single crash.
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Why It Matters: Demand Vacuum Creates Downside Risk
Exchange reserves sit near multi-year lows while long-term holders show little interest in distributing coins, creating a demand vacuum despite limited sell-side pressure.
Mom says modest selling can push prices sharply lower on thin order books as macro uncertainty keeps new buyers hesitant.
The analyst predicts Bitcoin may need a move below $80,000 to flush remaining weak hands and allow larger holders to reaccumulate, despite some market watchers targeting Q1 2026 recovery based on expected rate cuts and improved global liquidity.
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