XRP (XRP) has recorded its largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022, with nearly $2 billion in losses logged over a single week — a rare signal that, in its last occurrence 39 months ago, preceded a 114% price rally over the following eight months, according to blockchain analytics firm Santiment.
What Happened: Realized Losses Spike
Santiment flagged the spike on Feb. 21, noting that weekly realized losses hit roughly -$1.93 billion, the highest level since 2022. Realized losses measure the aggregate value lost when holders sell coins below their purchase price — a metric analysts use as a proxy for capitulation.
The last time the metric reached comparable levels, XRP gained 114% over roughly eight months. That historical episode has drawn renewed attention, though the specific market conditions behind that rally are not guaranteed to repeat.
At the time of the reports, XRP traded near $1.45, up about 1.50% over 24 hours but down roughly 24% for the month. The token moved largely in step with Bitcoin (BTC) during a broader market bounce.
Some analysts have used prior cycle lows to estimate a possible macro floor between $0.75 and $0.85, applying a roughly 2.8x multiple. Meanwhile, more aggressive forecasts have circulated online — CryptoBull, a social media analyst, posted targets of $13 by March, $27 by April, and $70 by May, projections that would require dramatic capital inflows and are far beyond typical market cap expansion.
Also Read: What If AI Bullishness Is Actually Bearish For Economy? This Research Paper Suggests So
Why It Matters: Cycle Signal Returns
The realized loss metric is closely tracked because it tends to spike near major market lows. When large numbers of holders sell at a loss simultaneously, it often signals that weaker positions have been flushed out, potentially clearing the way for a supply-demand shift.
Whether history repeats depends on incoming demand, broader crypto sentiment, and sustained buying pressure in the weeks ahead. For now, the data has put the metric back in focus for traders watching for signs of a cycle bottom.
Read Next: Blockchain Data Now Predicts Drug Crises Months Before Official Statistics, Chainalysis Finds