Aster (ASTER) is rallying ahead of its March mainnet launch, but community analysts on CoinMarketCap forums are divided over whether the token's momentum can survive a looming supply unlock scheduled for Feb. 17, with estimates ranging from 78 million to 164 million tokens set to enter circulation.
What Happened: Pre-Mainnet Rally Meets Unlock Fears
The Aster Chain Layer 1 mainnet is set to go live in March, and the announcement has pushed ASTER past $0.70 in recent days — a run-up of more than 30% over the past week, even as broader crypto markets trend lower. Trading volume and active addresses have both climbed, with the token's 24-hour futures volume topping $775M and its market cap hovering near $1.73B.
But the Feb. 17 token unlock is casting a shadow.
CoinMarketCap forum analyst CryptoAnu pegged the release at 78.48 million ASTER, roughly 0.98% of total supply, valued at approximately $56M. Another analyst, MonoCoin, cited a far larger figure — 164.67 million tokens worth an estimated $115M, which would add roughly 6.6% to circulating supply overnight.
MonoCoin also flagged what he called a delayed staking rollout, noting that the feature will not go live at launch but has been pushed to the second quarter, removing any near-term yield incentive for holders to lock their tokens.
A third analyst, Eko_crypto_, argued the rally's staying power depends entirely on whether the project can deliver real on-chain metrics after launch, including active addresses, meaningful volume, total value locked and functioning applications.
"If there is use, the capital can stay," the analyst wrote. "If it was just expectation, the risk of selling the news increases."
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Why It Matters: Supply Shock Versus Narrative Momentum
ASTER is still trading well below its all-time high near $2.41, and the token has held up better than most altcoins during the current downturn, which leaves room for either continued gains or a sharper reversal. The tension between mainnet anticipation and unlock pressure captures a pattern that plays out repeatedly in crypto — pre-event rallies that draw in retail buyers just as early investors gain access to liquid tokens.
MonoCoin, who disclosed a short position, described the current price action as "exit liquidity for the Feb 17 unlockers" and pointed to a 57.3% upper wick rejection at $0.76 as evidence that insiders had already begun selling.
CoinMarketCap analyst CryptomsHQ took a more measured view, noting that volume and active addresses suggest real interest beyond speculation but acknowledging that token unlocks and profit-taking around launch could trigger pullbacks.
The volume picture adds another layer of uncertainty.
Coinglass recently published a 24-hour comparison of perpetual decentralized exchanges that raised questions about whether trading activity on platforms like Hyperliquid, Aster and Lighter reflects genuine market demand or incentive-driven manipulation. Aster posted $2.76B in volume against just $7.2M in liquidations, a ratio Coinglass flagged as potentially inconsistent with organic hedging activity.
The firm suggested the combination of high reported volume and low liquidations may point to market-maker looping or points farming, and concluded that Hyperliquid showed stronger internal consistency across key metrics while volume quality on some competitors warrants further validation.
Aster's broader 2026 roadmap — which includes staking, governance and expanded support for synthetic products like stock perpetuals — could provide a longer-term floor if execution follows the timeline, but the next five days will test whether this rally has legs.
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