PancakeSwap has unveiled a new prediction market platform called Probable, marking the decentralized exchange's expansion into event-based trading.
The zero-fee platform will launch exclusively on BNB Chain in the coming weeks.
Probable represents the latest entrant in a rapidly growing prediction market sector that generated nearly $10 billion in combined monthly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket during November 2025.
What Happened
PancakeSwap announced Probable's incubation Monday alongside YZi Labs, formerly known as Binance Labs.
The platform will host markets on cryptocurrency price movements, sports outcomes, political events, and global macro developments.
Users can deposit any cryptocurrency, which will automatically convert to USDT on BNB Chain without requiring manual swaps or bridges.
Probable will use UMA's Optimistic Oracle for market resolution, the same system employed by Polymarket.
The platform will launch with zero trading fees, removing a key cost barrier that affects competing platforms.
PancakeSwap described Probable as built "for anyone who wants a simple, transparent, and fast way to predict crypto movements, global events, sports outcomes, and unique regional markets."
The project operates independently despite institutional backing from PancakeSwap and YZi Labs.
BNB Chain already hosts multiple prediction platforms including Opinion Labs, which launched its mainnet October 23 with backing from YZi Labs.
Changpeng Zhao previously highlighted Predict.fun in early December, another BNB Chain prediction market with 12,000 users and $300,000 in volume.
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Why It Matters
The prediction market sector has exploded in 2025 amid regulatory clarity and mainstream adoption.
Kalshi closed a $1 billion financing round at an $11 billion valuation December 2, while Polymarket is in talks for funding at valuations between $12 billion and $15 billion.
Kalshi captured 78% market share with $1.8 billion in weekly volume as of December 8, while Polymarket recorded $511 million.
BNB Chain's push into prediction markets leverages the network's large user base and low transaction costs.
Opinion Labs reported 1.6 million active users and more than $300 million in trading volume since its March testnet debut.
The competition comes as established platforms face regulatory scrutiny while simultaneously gaining institutional backing.
Polymarket received CFTC approval for intermediated trading in November, clearing the path for U.S. brokerages to list its contracts.
Kalshi's volume surge followed partnerships with Robinhood, which traded 2.5 billion prediction market contracts in October alone.
Probable's zero-fee structure and seamless token conversion address key friction points that have limited prediction market adoption.
The platform's success will depend on attracting sufficient liquidity to compete with established players that benefit from network effects.
YZi Labs manages over $10 billion in assets and has invested in more than 300 projects, providing Probable with significant ecosystem support.
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