Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $125,000 by year-end, citing wartime spending and a banking rule change.
Hayes Year-End Call
Hayes laid out the projection at Bitcoin Vegas 2026. His remarks landed as Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 on Tuesday, weighed down by higher oil prices and pending central bank decisions.
The BitMEX co-founder said three forces are reshaping credit conditions. He named artificial intelligence-driven job losses, the transition to incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, and a regulatory shift that lets US banks hold fewer reserves against certain assets.
Hayes pointed to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which took effect April 1, as a key catalyst. Citing S&P Global estimates, he said the rule could generate $1.3 trillion in new lending capacity, translating into roughly $4 trillion in fresh credit.
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Wartime Liquidity Thesis
Hayes argued that the US-Iran conflict, which escalated in late February, has shifted markets from AI-driven credit deflation toward wartime inflation. Defense outlays, he said, will require monetary expansion regardless of how Fed policy is publicly framed.
He pushed back on hawkish reads of Warsh, arguing the incoming chair must work alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to keep bond markets orderly while Washington funds rising debt.
The $125,000 figure marks a sharp pullback from Hayes's earlier 2026 outlook. In March, he maintained a $250,000 year-end target, though he warned the rally hinged on central banks resuming liquidity injections. Bitcoin currently trades roughly 39% below its October all-time high near $126,000.
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