Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin (BTC) could decline to roughly $25,000 after the cryptocurrency breached its latest parabolic advance, arguing that historical bull-market patterns point toward a far deeper pullback than investors may expect.
What Happened
Brandt, known for his multi-cycle technical analysis of Bitcoin, outlined four data points that underpin his outlook, asserting that Bitcoin’s bull cycles have shown “exponential decay,” each cycle has been defined by a parabolic rise, every break of those parabolas has historically resulted in declines of more than 80%, and the current advance has now been violated.
Based on his framework, a 20% retracement from Bitcoin’s all-time high would place the downside target at $25,240.
Brandt’s view centers on the idea that Bitcoin’s major bull trends follow identifiable geometric structures.
In previous cycles, including 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021, once Bitcoin broke below the curve supporting its parabolic uptrend, the market experienced a rapid and severe correction.
While Brandt is not forecasting an identical repeat of past drawdowns, he notes that the technical trigger is the same: the decisive failure of the parabola.
His comment about “exponential decay” refers to a long-observed reduction in Bitcoin’s upside amplitude with each successive bull cycle.
Early cycles delivered gains of several thousand percent, while later ones have produced increasingly smaller multiples.
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According to Brandt, this diminishing power makes each new parabola more fragile and reduces the likelihood of sustained vertical price behavior.
Why It Matters
By highlighting that previous breaks have resulted in >80% declines, Brandt is pointing to a structural vulnerability in Bitcoin’s long-term trend, that is, once a parabolic move fails, it can unwind sharply because market participants are no longer anchored to the same rate of accelerated growth.
The $25,000 level Brandt cites is not a prediction of full-cycle collapse but rather a technical reference point derived from his “20% of ATH” metric.
It represents what he considers the lower bound implied by the current broken parabola.
Brandt’s assessment comes as Bitcoin trades at $86,200 levels, down 31.5% from its all time high of $126,080, last seen on October 6 this year.