Polymarket traders now price a 73% chance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becomes law in 2026, up from 46% at the start of May.
Polymarket Odds Surge Ahead Of Senate Vote
The repricing follows confirmation from the Senate Banking Committee that it will hold a markup on Thursday, May 14, at 10:30 a.m. in Room 538 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building.
Media reported the 73% figure on Monday, citing live data from the prediction market, which has tracked the bill's odds since January. The legislation, formally designated H.R.3633, has been stuck in the Senate since the House passed it 294-134 in July 2025, with prior efforts derailed by industry disputes over stablecoin yield rules.
Fox reporter Eleanor Terrett confirmed draft text had circulated to select industry members ahead of the vote.
The markup gives the panel a fresh shot before the White House's July 4 signing target.
Banking Chairman Tim Scott had postponed an earlier January markup after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong pulled support over stablecoin yield language.
Scott has since framed market structure as a 2026 deliverable for the Republican majority, and aides close to the talks say a further postponement is not on the table.
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Banks Push Back On Stablecoin Compromise
Three major banking trade groups, the American Bankers Association, the Bank Policy Institute, and the Independent Community Bankers of America, formally rejected the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin compromise on May 9.
They argued the revised language still leaves room for crypto platforms to offer deposit-like products that could erode bank funding. The compromise, brokered by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, would ban payments "economically or functionally equivalent" to interest-bearing bank deposits.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, argued the bill could catalyze the next phase of digital-asset innovation and capital formation.
He said it would replace regulatory uncertainty with a long-awaited framework for developers, businesses, and investors trying to build inside U.S. borders.
The legislation would split oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, defining which tokens count as securities and which as commodities. Any text approved by the panel must still be reconciled with a separate Senate Agriculture Committee version, clear a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, and align with the House bill before reaching the president's desk. Memorial Day recess begins May 21, leaving a narrow window for floor action this month.
Long Road To Crypto Market Structure
Polymarket odds hit 82% in February, crashed to 46% by late April, and have now rebounded sharply within roughly two weeks.
The collapse tracked months of delays and amendment disputes, while the rebound followed Scott's April 30 comments that his committee was nearing bipartisan consensus after locking in all 13 Republican votes. Senator Cynthia Lummis warned attendees at the Bitcoin 2026 conference that missing this year's legislative window would push federal action on crypto market structure all the way to 2030.
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