Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest selloff may be nearing exhaustion, with Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick arguing that the market could soon look back at current levels as a key buying zone if two major stress points ease in the coming days.
In a note sent to Yellow.com, Kendrick said the week had been “painful in crypto,” with Bitcoin coming under pressure after Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, sold 32 BTC. The sale fed directly into concerns from critics of digital asset treasury companies, particularly because it came while Bitcoin was already under pressure.
“The catalyst (MSTR sale of 32 BTC) unfortunately fit the DAT naysayer thesis perfectly,” Kendrick said in the note. “And the timing of the sale was a shame.”
However, Kendrick said the more important question is what Strategy does next. He pointed to the company’s last Bitcoin sale on Dec. 22, 2022, when it sold 704 BTC for tax optimization purposes and bought back 810 BTC two days later.
MSTR Buying Could Signal A Market Floor
Kendrick said he suspects Strategy’s buying after the latest sale could be more aggressive this time, potentially reaching either 10 times or 100 times the amount sold.
“This time I suspect the buying following the selling will be more aggressive – I think either 10x (+ 320 BTC) or 100x (+3200 BTC),” Kendrick said.
If that happens, he said markets may interpret the move as an early sign that the Bitcoin low has already been set. He added that weekend selling could remain muted because traders may be reluctant to sell aggressively before Monday, when the market could find out whether Strategy bought a larger amount of BTC during the week.
“If I am right the question is how will markets take it? I would see it as a tentative sign the low has been printed,” Kendrick said.
ETF Holdings Look Stronger Than Feared
Kendrick also said Bitcoin exchange-traded fund holdings have held up better than he expected earlier this year.
In February, he had warned of further downside and called for more pain in Bitcoin, with a $50,000 target. At that time, he saw ETF capitulation as a major risk. But since that report, ETF holdings have remained broadly unchanged, moving from 682,000 BTC to 674,000 BTC.
“This tells me that ETF holdings are more structurally strong than I had feared in February,” Kendrick said.
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That matters because ETF outflows were one of the clearest potential sources of further forced selling. If ETF holders remain stable and Strategy resumes buying, Kendrick said the market must ask where additional selling pressure would come from.
Liquidations May Have Already Cleared Much Of The Leverage
Kendrick said Bitcoin futures liquidations this week reached about $1.5 billion, similar in scale to liquidation events seen in January and February.
He acknowledged that further liquidation risk remains if Bitcoin falls below $60,000. However, he argued that Bitcoin has already traded poorly against equities this year, meaning the amount of remaining long leverage to liquidate is likely lower than before.
The combination of possible Strategy buying, resilient ETF holdings and heavy futures liquidations suggests that forced selling may be closer to exhaustion.
Buying Zone, Not A Confirmed Bottom
Kendrick stopped short of declaring a definitive Bitcoin bottom, saying there are still “a lot of ifs” in the outlook. Instead, he said accumulation is a better strategy than trying to call the exact low.
“There are a lot of ‘ifs’ in the above so accumulation is a better strategy than trying to outright declare the low has been printed,” Kendrick said.
Still, his broader outlook remains constructive. He said that by the end of 2026, with Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum (ETH) at $4,000, investors may view the current market weakness as the buying zone they had been waiting for.
“But I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted,” Kendrick said.
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