XRP (xrp) rose near $1.05 on Jul. 2, but weaker holder demand and softer derivatives activity left the rebound exposed.
Key Points:
- XRP gained about 2%, but the move came with lower trading volume.
- Long-term holder net buying fell about 11% from Jun. 30 to Jul. 1.
- Lower futures exposure may reduce the risk of a sharper leveraged sell-off.
XRP Price Risk
XRP’s latest price gain lacked strong confirmation from volume, a setup that can leave short rebounds vulnerable when buyers do not expand with price.
Trading volume has thinned since Jun. 26, even as XRP moved higher, while the Relative Strength Index sat at 37.97, below the neutral 50 level that traders often use to separate stronger momentum from weaker conditions.
The chart also showed a developing hidden bearish divergence, with price making lower highs while the RSI made higher highs.
The signal remains incomplete, but it would strengthen if XRP fails to retake about $1.069 and then closes lower on the next daily candle.
TradingView data placed first resistance at $1.069, while a stronger bullish test sits at $1.099, the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Below current levels, $1.046 is the first support, followed by $1.00 and then $0.979 if selling pressure builds.
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XRP Holder Demand
On-chain data from Glassnode added to the caution, as HODLer Net Position Change fell to 213.6 million XRP on Jul. 1 from about 239.3 million XRP on Jun. 30, a drop of roughly 11%.
That decline came while the token was rising, suggesting long-term holders slowed accumulation into strength rather than chasing the move. For traders, that matters because sustained rebounds often need support from conviction buyers, not only short-term demand.
Derivatives data from Santiment offered a different kind of signal. XRP open interest fell about 11%, from $865.52 million on Jun. 23 to $766.32 million, showing that fewer leveraged futures positions remained active.
Funding rates also stayed negative, pointing to cautious positioning instead of crowded long exposure. That can cap upside enthusiasm, but it also reduces the fuel for a severe liquidation-driven drop if XRP turns lower.
The latest setup leaves XRP between weak momentum and thinner downside leverage. In recent sessions, the price has struggled to build distance from the $1.00 area, making the $1.069 and $1.099 levels the main tests for any firmer recovery.
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