XRP (XRP) trades near $1.09 as record monthly oversold readings collide with weak institutional demand and uncertainty over whether the token has formed a durable bottom.
Key Points:
- XRP’s monthly RSI has fallen below levels recorded during the Mar. 2020 market crash.
- Analysts identify $1.22 as a breakout threshold, while a loss of $1.01 could expose further weakness.
- ETF flows and exchange outflows show limited evidence of sustained accumulation.
XRP Oversold Signals
XRP remains about 72% below its record high after touching a two-year low near $1 in Jun. The token now trades near $1.09. The Relative Strength Index, which measures whether buying or selling has become excessive, usually treats readings below 30 as oversold, and analyst Ash Crypto said XRP’s monthly figure fell beneath the Mar. 2020 crash level.
Analyst ChartNerdTA pointed to the middle regression band of XRP’s Gaussian channel, a zone that preceded extended accumulation periods in earlier cycles. That support sits near $0.88 and could rise over time, while analyst CW linked falling open interest during the advance to shorts closing or being liquidated, adding, “Bearish bettors are cutting their losses during the rise.”
Short covering can drive sharp squeezes, but sustained rallies usually require new long positions and stronger spot demand. XRP gained about 6.83% in Jul. Aug. has historically been flat, averaging only 0.43%.
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Bottom Risks
Spot exchange-traded products recorded no movement on 11 of 17 trading days in Jul., according to SoSoValue, while slower exchange outflows showed that accumulation had cooled. Fund demand remains muted.
A three-day close above $1.22 would strengthen the breakout case and could revive institutional inflows, while a loss of $1.01 would expose the token to further weakness.
Selling volume is thin. ChartNerdTA said, “A decline below $1.00 would align RSI positioning with genuine historical macro bottom structures,” underscoring why analysts still view the $1 area as decisive.
XRP has a nearly $68 billion market cap, 62.5 billion tokens in circulation and daily volume above $1.2 billion, yet its slide toward $1 shows a durable bottom still requires broader market support, Ripple clarity and renewed buying.
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