XRP (XRP) gained nearly 7% over the past seven days to trade near $1.48, making it the second-best performer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies after Dogecoin (DOGE), but the rally now faces a direct conflict between short-term bearish technicals and medium-term accumulation signals that could determine whether the token crashes 16% or repeats January's 30% surge.
What Happened: Smart Money Turns Bullish
The 4-hour chart shows a head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline near $1.44, carrying roughly 16% downside risk if support fails. Between Feb. 15 and Feb. 18, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator diverged from price action — XRP trended higher while CMF trended lower and broke below zero, suggesting possible short-term institutional selling into strength.
On Feb. 17, however, exchange data told a different story. The 30-day rolling exchange net position change flipped sharply negative to -63.84 million XRP, according to Glassnode data — a move 6.5 times larger than the previous outflow of -9.82 million recorded on Feb. 6.
Whale addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP added 20 million coins on the same day, increasing combined balances from 3.76 billion to 3.78 billion, per Santiment data.
The daily Smart Money Index crossed above its signal line on Feb. 15. The last time this crossover occurred was Jan. 1, 2026, and XRP rallied over 30% following that signal.
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Why It Matters: Conflicting Signals at $1.42
The tension between timeframes creates a decisive moment for XRP. Short-term technicals point down, while medium-term positioning — whale accumulation of 20 million XRP, massive exchange outflows, and the Smart Money precedent — favors the upside.
If support at $1.42, which aligns closely with the $1.44 head and shoulders neckline, breaks, the bearish pattern activates with a measured move target of $1.12. If $1.42 holds and Smart Money positioning plays out like January, the first target sits at $1.91 — approximately 30% upside from current levels — with potential extension toward $2.13 and then $2.41 on continued momentum.
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