Coinbase is facing a wave of user complaints over delayed and missing payouts from its Super Bowl "Big Game Challenge" prediction market contest, which promised participants a share of $1,000,000 in Bitcoin (BTC) for correctly predicting game outcomes — with partner platform Kalshi simultaneously struggling under the weight of Super Bowl traffic that caused deposit failures and transaction delays across its infrastructure.
What Happened: Payout Delays Spark Outrage
Users on Reddit and social media reported a range of problems with the contest. Some said winnings briefly appeared in their account balances before vanishing without explanation.
Others described receiving in-app confirmation of a win after hitting the five-correct-prediction threshold, only to later get an email stating they had not won — prompting accusations of a "rug pull."
Coinbase support responses indicated that rewards are being held until all prediction markets and mail-in entries are fully settled.
The company said verified winners will receive their share of the Bitcoin prize pool directly into their accounts no later than Feb. 23, 2026.
Meanwhile, Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara acknowledged the slowdowns on X, writing that deposits were delayed because of the volume of traffic. She assured users their funds were "safe and on the way."
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Why It Matters: Prediction Markets Face Stress Test
The operational failures come at a pivotal moment for crypto prediction markets, which are simultaneously battling regulatory challenges and questions about long-term utility. State gaming regulators, including the Nevada Gaming Control Board, have sued Coinbase to block its prediction markets, arguing the contracts constitute unlicensed sports wagering.
Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently raised broader concerns about the direction of prediction markets, warning that over-reliance on speculative contracts risks producing products that lack deeper utility. He urged a shift toward hedging and risk-management applications instead.
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